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  • Writer's pictureMBS

Covid-19 Numbers Fact or Farce

I recently stumbled upon the following post on facebook and I have to say this does not surprise me in the least:

Reposting from friend and NOAA Scientist:

YES -- the CDC is combining numbers for CURRENT and possible PAST infections into the "NEW" case category! This is far more critical than most people understand!!

Do you want to understand why "new" case numbers for COVID-19 are not declining much and even spiking? CDC has chosen to combine tests for ACTIVE cases (swab and saliva tests) with PAST cases (Antibody blood tests). This is what LIveScience site says about that and (as a research scientist) I certainly agree! As a research scientist -- I have to be very careful what the data I am looking at represent. I frequently "stratify" the data to better understand what is really happening. CDC instead are "smearing" the results by combining these two data sources. I had suspected that this was happening and now I have confirmed it!

"Combining these two signals makes the data difficult to interpret and could be misleading to the public, because the combined number does not reflect the rate of new infection (and the number of infectious people circulating) in their region, William Hanage, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told The Atlantic. "Combining a test that is designed to detect current infection with a test that detects infection at some point in the past is just really confusing and muddies the water," he said."

Read the whole article here:

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